Bitcoin’s ascent to a fresh all-time high (ATH) of $111,980 sparked excitement, but recent price consolidation around $105,000 has some traders wary. On-chain data, however, indicates the Bitcoin bullish momentum remains robust. At CryptaBlocks, we analyze the latest Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) signals, retail participation trends, and potential bull-trap risks to guide our investors through this pivotal phase.

1. Limited Profit-Taking Signals Ongoing Rally

• NRPL Insights: The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) metric measures realized gains versus losses when holders sell their BTC. Current NRPL levels are notably lower than during past market peaks in March and November 2024.

• Implication: A subdued NRPL during price increases suggests limited profit-taking by holders, which often precedes further upside. This data supports the view that the Bitcoin bullish momentum is far from exhausted—potentially paving the way toward $120,000.

2. Bull Trap Warning: Exercise Caution

• Bull Trap Definition: A bull trap occurs when an asset briefly breaks above resistance, luring buyers before reversing back down below that level. Some analysts caution that the recent ATH could be a bull trap, potentially sending BTC below $100,000.

• CryptaBlocks’ Take: While we acknowledge this risk, the current NRPL and low realized profits do not confirm a reversal. Traders should remain vigilant and use protective risk management techniques, such as trailing stops and position sizing.

3. Weak Selling Pressure & Retail Absence

• Bull Trap Definition: A bull trap occurs when an asset briefly breaks above resistance, luring buyers before reversing back down below that level. Some analysts caution that the recent ATH could be a bull trap, potentially sending BTC below $100,000.

• CryptaBlocks’ Take: While we acknowledge this risk, the current NRPL and low realized profits do not confirm a reversal. Traders should remain vigilant and use protective risk management techniques, such as trailing stops and position sizing.

4. What’s Next for Bitcoin?

• Short-Term Outlook: Bitcoin’s recent dip to $105,659 (down 2.5% in 24 hours) may present buying opportunities if support holds near $105,000. NRPL’s limited spikes indicate profit-taking has not peaked.

• Mid-Term Prospects: If the Bitcoin bullish momentum endures, we could see a push toward $120,000 in the coming weeks. Critical watch levels include $108,000 (support) and $112,000 (resistance).

• Risk Management: Investors should continue monitoring on-chain signals, maintain clear stop levels, and scale positions prudently to maximize ROI while navigating volatility.

5. Conclusion

On-chain data strongly suggests that the Bitcoin bullish momentum is far from over. Limited profit-taking, muted retail participation, and steady holder conviction all support a bullish continuation. As markets evolve, CryptaBlocks remains committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategies, helping investors capitalize on Bitcoin’s potential while managing downside risk.